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Ballesteros-Pérez, P, Skitmore, M, Cerezo-Narváez, A, Otero-Mateo, M and Pastor-Fernández, A (2023) Gates’ bidding model (revisited). Construction Management and Economics, 41(07), 576–86.

  • Type: Journal Article
  • Keywords: Gates; bidding; auction; tendering; probability;
  • ISBN/ISSN: 0144-6193
  • URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/01446193.2023.2181980
  • Abstract:
    Gates’ (1967) bidding model was one of the earliest proposed for construction bidding. Its most celebrated formula allows for calculating the probability of any bidder submitting the lowest bid when competing against several known competitors. This model has been shown to outperform many recent bidding models. However, it also suffers from important limitations that keep it from being applied in wider contexts. In this paper, we overcome two of such limitations. First, we extend Gates’ model to calculate the probability of a bidder ending in any position other than the first (lowest). Second, we propose an approach for extrapolating the probabilities of all bidders underbidding each other, even in those situations of limited access to historical bidding information. Overcoming these limitations significantly enhances Gates’ model in two ways. First, it allows anticipating the probabilities of winning an auction in best value auctions where bidders who submitted a competitive but not necessarily the lowest bid can still win. Second, our extension allows applying Gates’ formula in situations of incomplete information. This is especially interesting when some bidders have not met in previous auctions and there is no information from them individually underbidding each other.

Liu, Q, Feng, Y, London, K and Zhang, P (2023) Coping strategies for work and cultural stressors in multicultural construction workplaces: a study in Australia. Construction Management and Economics, 41(07), 537–53.

Sherratt, F and Raiden, A (2023) Taking a new view for researching occupational safety in construction: site safety practice. Construction Management and Economics, 41(07), 554–75.

Singh, V and Bolpagni, M (2023) Effects of trigger events on innovation behaviour: insights from the data collected from construction professionals during COVID-19. Construction Management and Economics, 41(07), 587–607.

Zhou, S (, Mosca, L and Whyte, J (2023) How the reliability of external competences shapes the modularization strategies of industrialized construction firms. Construction Management and Economics, 41(07), 608–19.